Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

 Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets

I was part a group that used computers in the 1980's to win millions of dollars in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was well before personal computers became commonplace. We were years away from the invention we now call the internet. It was not possible to access handicapping statistics and data. There were two reasons we were successful. First, we were ahead in collecting crucial information. We found a loophole in their old ways of doing things, so we used that to our advantage.

Those days are over. The second key to success is to understand the real workings of numbers.

ODDS ARE NOT ABLE TO PREDICT WINNERS

This is how it should be viewed. "Odds cannot predict who will be victorious." They are actually predicting which person the public THINK will win." Many sports punters, novice and professional, don't know the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way wagers are placed at odds of 11-10. This means that you can bet on two teams with 50-50 chances of winning, with no ties. This means that you can bet PS11 to win PS10. Half of the punters pick team A. They win and get their PS10. The rest of the punters select team B and pay their bookie PS11. You might think that this gives the house or bookmaker at least a 4.55% advantage. You'd be wrong if you believed this, but 99.5% think exactly the same as you.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

This is the general consensus. The bookmakers make their profit by maintaining a balance in their books. The bookmakers hope to win by placing half of each team's bets, so they can make a profit every time. In reality, they rarely balance their books. You might find some local bookmakers who operate this way, although they may have small bankrolls. However, the internet makes it possible for anyone to buy lopsided books. Many small bookmakers don't know the secret. They are just like the rest and follow the herd. The biggest secret is the erroneous belief in the industry that large sports betting operations must balance their bets. The only thing they need to do is ensure that both sides have enough volume, but not balance the books.

THE BOOKMAKER'S SECRET REVEALED

Imagine that the $165,000 bettors placed on the favourite to win $150,000. However, the public placed $82,500 on the favourite to win $75,000. The result looks like a mismatch and the bookmaker is in big trouble if their favourite wins. If the dog wins the match, the sportsbook makes $90,000. He also wins $165,000 with the favourite bettors and pays $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite is victorious, the bookmaker will lose $67,000. He will receive $82,500 from his underdog backers but lose $150,000 to those who bet on the favourite. This will result in a loss totaling $67,500

Perhaps you are thinking, too, that math does no make the house a winner. Recall that the Underdog wins and the bookmaker wins $82,500. However, if the favorite wins, it is worth $67,500. Favorites and underdogs share the winnings equally, with each side winning 50% of all times. The bookmaker will lose $67500 50% of the time and win $82,500 the other half. His profit is $15,000, regardless of who wins. In this example, what risk is the bookmaker taking? The bookmaker is taking a $67,500 risk to win $82,500. To put it simply, he is actually laying $75 to win $100. This means that he doesn't need to win 50% to break even. Only a 42.9% strikerate is required for the house to be profitable. Sports Betting Secrets